TL;DR Edit: Edit: It's actually worse because I miscalculated and consequently *underestimated* gas price inflation. The price inflation from last year till last month was +$0.669 per gallon. Versus the price increase over *just* the last month, which was +$0.693 per gallon. In other words HALF of the price inflation thats happened, has happened in ONLY just the last month. We have less time than anyone thought, because **We're already in hyperinflation.** THE BASICS First we'll start here, because its my goto. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ Looking at the month over month chart, We saw a gas price rise of $1.362 per gallon of gas, over the course of a year. Going from $2.874 to $4.236 a gallon, represents a 47.39% yearly inflation rate. If hyperinflation were measured year over year, instead of month over month, we'd already be in it. That, on average represents a 3.949% increase month, over month. This is actually *lagging* food inflation, which you can see here https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/ The energy sector, according to this saw a 25% increase from inflation. But those numbers are deceptive, because so much of our energy comes from oil, and the price of oil is not easily hid, even if they wanted to. From this we can see, the actual inflation rate versus the official rate is double whats reported. But has all that inflation over the last year been evenly distributed across the months? No it has not. Last month we were at $3.543, today we're at $4.236. That means 19.559% of price inflation happened in just one month. We're not a tenth of the way to economic shock or civil disorder, we're nearly *half* of the way there. Let me illustrate: Hyperinflation is defined as, at minimum, a 50% increase in prices across the economy, month over month. We're technically at 40% of the way to the official definition of hyperinflation. With the "decline" in prices actually slowing down, it looks like the worm is about to turn on prices, as we head into a war and the summer months. Historically hyperinflation in food, where cost was 50% or more of income, very often leads to large scale internal conflicts and disorder, because 50% month over month inflation always leads to faster cycles, as people spend money as soon as they get it so that it doesn't lose value by the time next month, next week, or tomorrow comes. Foods "official" inflation was 7.9%, but actually, it's probably more like 15-16%, if oil, and grocery-store prices are anything to go by. And thats not even talking about fertilizer and diesel prices for farming. If food prices track gas prices in inflation rate (like everything else), then a certain psychological tipping point will be hit where people will see fuel prices and not only start buying in large quantities, but will like-wise do the same for food and durable goods. This means any "yearly" measure of inflation will quickly catch up with the *monthly* inflation rate of fuel. What can the u.s. regime do about any of this? Probably nothing. Lets go over to the following, for further details. https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/handle/20.500.12413/16721/999_Food_Prices_and_Political_Instability.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y > Hendrix et al. (2009) argue that protest is more likely to occur in hybrid regimes than in either democracies or autocracies. In democracies there are other outlets such as elections for citizens to voice their dissatisfaction with government. Hybrid regimes are likely to tolerate protests if they believe they can prevent them from becoming revolutionary movements that threaten their authority. Such governments are willing to make concessions as long as the demands are restricted to bread-and-butter issues that do not challenge the incumbent rule, for example tariffs, subsidies, wages and food. Hybrid regimes differ from hard autocratic regimes that do not leave any options for protest, and where any kind of anti-government mobilisation will be harshly repressed. Hybrid regimes may also use controlled protest as a tool of monitoring the state itself and collecting information. This neatly describes the u.s. regime, a hybrid government. There will likely be conflict between producers and consumers, and export interests vs import interests. We can expect a replay of 2020, as the u.s. occupation allows the left to run riot as before. We can expect harsher repression of the right than before. Likewise we will see possibly a large national rise in the minimum wage, combine with tandem large scale unemployment in a cycle of price-rise -> inflation increase -> consumer spending increase to compensate -> defaults and higher interest OR more federal reserve printing (but not both) -> rising costs -> demand destruction -> increase in defaults, and small business bankruptcies, leading to rising unemployment. GAS AND OIL PRICING SCENARIOS. Typically about 42 gallons of petroleum products are derived from one barrel of oil. The way gas prices as a function of oil prices are typically calculated, is to take 42 and divide it by the current average. (for now ignore sources telling you we get 45 gallons of petroleum products out of 42). And while this tells you how much the oil price itself contributes to the cost at the pump, it skips some important details. Only about 18 of those gallons are gasoline, by u.s. refinery averages. A barrel of oil is 42.857% gasoline in the u.s. But how much of the *price* of that barrel of oil is currently gasoline? For that we do the following ((42*0.42857)*4.236)/106.35 (avg of brent crude for 1 past month) = 71.7% of the price of a barrel of oil is currently the gasoline, be it the refineries, export/import issues, or at-pump gouging. And I wouldn't be surprised, considering what happened with the lumber panic. We can confirm this is correct, by getting the gas price back out: ((((42*0.42857)*4.236)))/18 = $4.2359 Close enough for our purposes. But if thats the case, how do we get what the prices *should* be? We start here: 106.35/(42*0.42857) we take the national monthly brent crude price, and divide it by the number of gallons in a barrel times the fraction of that barrel that is gasoline. What are the implications of this? Suppose unofficial inflation resumes, and the rate stays steady at the same time as calls for the federal reserve to raise rates to 10-15%. BEST CASE If this years inflation is "only" as bad as last years, with cost increases of '25%' Gasoline will be $5.295 a gallon. ((42*0.42857)*(5.295)) * (1/0.717) $132.93 for brent crude one year from now. Maybe one person somewhere out there, out of hundreds, is predicting such a rosy picture. AVERAGE CASE Somewhere around 150 per barrel of brent in the u.s is what a lot of people are predicting. At that price, gas will cost roughly $5.975 a gallon. This is not unexpected, and as usual "so goes california, so goes america." I predicted this early on, even before ukraine In early november, 2021, I predicted gas should be roughly $4.86 a gallon, with crude at roughly $120 a barrel. With manufacturer margins, we could expect $6.278 a gallon, except for public outcry and the gas-tax rollbacks becoming more widespred, running us perhaps $6.15/g Subtracting the gross price from the national average, and adding in the margin increase, I predicted november 2021, that within perhaps six months or a little more, we'd see prices of $4.342 Here were my predictions at the time in november: Winter 2021-2022 range: rising but below $4/gal Spring 2022: $3.90+, and toward the middle/end of spring, $4.34 a gallon Summer 2022: $4.68 - $5.14 Fall 2022: Drop in demand, high debt and political upsets combine to hold gas prices stable as the u.s. adjusts in the $4.50 to $5.20 range. Winter 2022: Rising from $5.14 to 5.66 Last-three-quarters model (Summer, Fall, Winter 2022): Worst case scenario. $6.27 a gallon, as the rest of the country follows Californias lead and debt defaults and financial volatility hit u.s. domestic and international markets. The $150/barrel model looks increasingly like the model going forward. Which according to the following, puts us right around the predicted values: ((5.97*18)*(1/pricefrac)) 149.8847064145549 If gas prices rise consistently, ignoring recent ramp up, by what they did last year averaging 3.95%, for a year-over-year increase of about 47%, we should see $6.23 per gallon nationwide (with states like california signficantly higher) by this time next year. This would put oil at ((6.27*18)*(1/pricefrac)) = $157.416 right in line with what everyone else predicted. REFINING THE NUMBERS: THE WORST CASES BECOMING REAL With the benefit of hindsight, these numbers were, all things being equal, remarkably close, though things happened a little earlier than I predicted. What this looks like is sub-hyperinflation predictions by the market, being *cast as average and best case*, which isn't a good sign. It's *optimism laundering*. If we assume the last months blip is the new normal, instead of averaging yearly inflation on a monthly basis, lets look at inflation JUST on a monthly basis. We know inflation unofficially reported is *at least* 10%, in some cases 15%, month over month. Again, these match numbers called for by people criticizing the federal reserve (and it really should be criticized, to put it politely). On the geopolitical angle, we have a war, a brewing currency crisis, open questions about the petrodollar, what seems like a *deliberate* draw down of u.s. oil infrastructure, combine with a simultaneous draw down of the strategic oil reserves. Picture this, the u.s. shaken, economically under attack, and beset both from outside, and from within by its own bought-off congress and senate and industry. Imagine some bad news, maybe a terrorist attack, a distraction by the u.s. and its allies, maybe china moves on taiwan, or the world realizes what the u.s. already knows, that ukraine is over and so is the dollar. At this point 19% inflation, month over month, not hyperinflation, but something just a grade lower than it. Real pain. Increasingly, this does not look like the *worst* case, but the *average* case that we should come to *expect*. In this scenario, we would know this is the case by mid summer, as we drive to work one day only to see something that we all knew was likely, but didn't want to believe. Gas has gone up to $5.07. And not the premium stuff either. The ethanol ridden shit. $5.07. Five dollars, and seven cents. Is this reasonable a claim? But is it possible? But of course. With natural gas supplies openly questioned, and no let up in the u.s. occupation's desire to "rid the world of fossil fuels", pledged and planned production shutdowns by major oil companies, combine with lack of fertilizer (doubled in price due to natural gas), where will the corn be grown to produce the ethanol blended with gas? And now you see what I see. In this light, $5.07 a gallon looks completely possible. And that says nothing about diesel prices. By May, you see the dreaded $5/gallon, but you will have already started even before then in april, to watch it climb to this inevitable progress marker. In june, the numbers on the gas stations now read $6.03. By the middle and end of august you look up, as you drive by in your vehicle, unable to even even afford the fill up, but knowing tomorrow it will be even higher. You stop to fill up the tank, managing your money maybe from your salary or pension, both cut way back, to deal with the demand destruction. Or your hourly job, also cut way back, because clients and customers have dried up. Today your price is $7.20 a gallon. By September, there has already been a month or more of rioting. The u.s. federal occupation does nothing much to stop them, except dolling out UBI-like cash/gas cards, that only occasionally work, when they aren't being pilfered by israeli cyber-warfare groups, feeding like vampires at a trough, before the theft is blamed on russia. But people have already come to expect this. Because even if the cash cards worked, on the days they worked, even if it's your designated day to drive/buy gas (thanks to the "sunday driving laws"), the distance you would have to drive to find a gas station that even *has* gas, means you'd burn more gas filling up than it was worth. Hell you might idle-out waiting in line, assuming they didn't run out of gas before you got your turn. By october, you have listened to four months of the administration claiming that the ukraine war would be over in another two weeks, with russia always "just weeks away from surrender, and on the imminent verge of collapse." But this concerns you less than the fertilizer rationing, when you can find it, which you know you'll need for next year, because you were smart enough to at least plant a garden. AND while you did manage to harvest and jar some of your selection, the weird cold snaps, insect invasions, dry spells, fungus, and random bursts of 3-4 day rains, had flooded, scorched, eaten, and killed just about everything you tried to grow. You hear on the news that "foreign adversaries" are to blame, but who knows? It seems to you like the world is ending. Many people you know say the same things, but it is considered verboten to publicly question "americas economy in light of the war effort", and increasingly treated in public as hatespeech by violent mobs incidents. You hear about these events daily. Someone questioned the economy. Out of the blue someone in a mask called them a traitor, spreading russian disinformation and undermining our economy. They were surrounded by a mob and barely rescued by the police. "if everyone stopped questioning the economy and aiding russia, the economy would recover!" Increasingly no one speaks above a low whisper, about the prices of food at the store, the rationing, the lines. U.s. media mouthpieces urgently push discussion of a "fall campaign" in europe, and there is talk, furious public debate, about "the coming war" and possibility of a draft, and "buybacks" of things like farm equipment, farm supplies, food stocks that "selfish rightwingers horded early on". Meanwhile the cities burn, even into winter, the riots growing in scale and scope, but apparently going nowhere. Both parties openly discuss the need for new social controls, "social responsibility", "temporary restrictions on the right to travel and other privileges, given the ongoing national crisis". As you get up in the morning, you realize your gas is gone, all your chickens, your catalytic converter, and numerous other supplies. You had prided yourself when the organized theft gangs had started, and many people had been hit, but you'd always managed to ward them off or catch them. You clean up the mess they made, and as you do, you wonder how good the thieves must have got for them to be able to *hit you*, rob you in the dead of night, without tripping any of your alarms, without your dog barking, nothing. And you wonder how good the thieves congress must have got to steal the american dream out from under you, without a shot fired by the american people. Mostly you wonder about the never ending talk on the internet, now tightly controlled to prevent the "cyberpandemic" from spreading. You wonder about all the too-well manicured "ex-vets" and "patriots" on "alternative media", telling you to "hold the line!" and that when the "uprising begins, you'll know. But for now 'stay in formation and trust the plan!", legions of glitzy alternative shows, and vlogs, and broadcasts, "blasting" the "corrupt establishment!" in headlines, with titles like "wham!" and "bam!" and so-and-so "absolutely destroys the opposition in congressional hearing!", and despite the amount of noise, it is sound and fury, again and again amounting to, and signifying nothing. The shows goes on. And at last, some part of you knows, that you've been had.