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152

It's the move of cowards terrified of dying. Thats 100% why anyone would do it despite the propaganda loss doing it entails.

The very fact they chose to hide behind citizens knowing how that looks, tells you it's because they are scared and bluffing.

They're using human shields because their "stock to flow" of troops is too low even to survive without russian mercy to sustain them.

To hold the territory, russian will have to do things that will likely alienate the territory.

This is the breaking point for russia's strategy.

The u.s. is desperate and now pulling out all the stops.

If russia calls the bluff and bombs battalions using human shields, it will send the unequivocal message to the u.s. and Zalansky that "russia is prepared to USE EVERY WEAPON in its arsenal. To do anything, anything necessary, to win, regardless of the cost."

He will back down, because like his men, he is a coward and an actor.

The ukrainians citizens seeing the death of their own will realise one of two things:

"Russians are the ultimate evil" (which, if the war goes on long enough, the propaganda will cause them to believe anyway)

or

"if we are gonna be forced to die t the hands of azov who use us as human shields, we might as well kill azov and zelensky ourselves!"

If I ran Russia's military, I would simultenously also start to drop food and medicine for Ukrainian citizens, and elevate a few Russian soldiers, not for their ruthlessness, but ones that showed mercy or restraint.

The victory is the merger of the contradictory narratives of utter ruthlessness with a just and limited war .

Zelensky knows what the game on the ground is anyway, so it doesn't matter what he thinks. Likewise the u.s. which already had it in for russia.

Even if Russia backs off now, the u.s. has seen this as the ultimate proof that Russia and China are a threat, and will now move to quickly destroy both.

Their only hopes for survival is to nail ukraine's leadership to the wall, like christ driving out demons into a herd of swine.

The oligarchs are fleeing to israel not out of fear of their assets being taken, but because they expect and are likely demanding behind close doors tht the u.s. move to prepare for a full all-out war against Russia. Beijing has concluded the same, which is why they are now siding with russia while at the same time playing tight-lipped and trying to lightly project slight neutrality.

The u.s. is still bluffing on this, but if the regime realizes that this war is now a referendum on its credibility and by extension, the dollar, it will take us to war none-the-less.

I think there is a good probability that the outcome no one wants (full war) will play out, and if not, a failure of the dollar. In the latter case, where world war 3 doesn't happen, this is seen as a bellweather that the u.s. no longer has the military might to enforce dollar status. In the former case, full war, it happens anyway, because currency won't matter in a world war.

I'll put the probability of a world war AND/OR global economic super-depression from a failed dollar (inflation at 10-15% annually) at 60-70% within the next 18-24 months.

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It's the move of cowards terrified of dying. Thats 100% why anyone would do it despite the propaganda loss doing it entails. The very fact they chose to hide behind citizens *knowing* how that looks, tells you it's because they are scared and bluffing. They're using human shields because their "stock to flow" of troops is *too low even to survive* without russian mercy to sustain them. To hold the territory, russian will have to do things that will likely *alienate* the territory. This is the breaking point for russia's strategy. The u.s. is desperate and now pulling out all the stops. If russia calls the bluff and bombs battalions using human shields, it will send the *unequivocal* message to the u.s. and Zalansky that "russia is prepared to USE EVERY WEAPON in its arsenal. To do anything, anything necessary, to win, regardless of the cost." He will back down, because like his men, he is a coward and an actor. The ukrainians citizens seeing the death of their own will realise one of two things: "Russians are the ultimate evil" (which, if the war goes on long enough, the propaganda will cause them to believe anyway) or "if we are gonna be forced to die t the hands of azov who use us as human shields, we might as well kill azov and zelensky ourselves!" If I ran Russia's military, I would simultenously also start to drop food and medicine for Ukrainian citizens, and elevate a few Russian soldiers, not for their ruthlessness, but ones that showed mercy or restraint. The victory is the merger of the contradictory narratives of *utter ruthlessness* with *a just and limited war*. Zelensky knows what the game on the ground is anyway, so it doesn't matter what he thinks. Likewise the u.s. which already had it in for russia. Even if Russia backs off now, the u.s. has seen this as the ultimate proof that Russia and China *are* a threat, and will now move to quickly destroy both. Their only hopes for survival is to nail ukraine's leadership to the wall, like christ driving out demons into a herd of swine. The oligarchs are fleeing to israel not out of fear of their assets being taken, but because they expect and are likely demanding behind close doors tht the u.s. move to prepare for a full all-out war against Russia. Beijing has concluded the same, which is why they are now siding with russia while at the same time playing tight-lipped and trying to lightly project *slight* neutrality. The u.s. is still bluffing on this, but if the regime realizes that this war is now a referendum on its credibility and by extension, the dollar, it will take us to war none-the-less. I think there is a good probability that the outcome no one wants (full war) will play out, and if not, a failure of the dollar. In the latter case, where world war 3 doesn't happen, this is seen as a bellweather that the u.s. no longer has the military might to enforce dollar status. In the former case, full war, it happens anyway, because currency won't matter in a world war. I'll put the probability of a world war AND/OR global economic super-depression from a failed dollar (inflation at 10-15% annually) at 60-70% within the next 18-24 months.

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[–] • 3 pts 3y

Russia is winning this war and the next because they are a real military.

They are winning, but struggling on the propaganda front, and the longer this goes on, the harder the fight is going to become. I don't know many russians (well, none), but I do know the CIA et all are counting on russian citizen war fatigue to carry out a color revolution in Moscow, which means they likely already have assets in position. Which explains the real reason the oligarchs are getting out of town. Domestic strife is coming. The longer this goes on, the more effective the atrocity propaganda will be, the harder the FSB will have to fight to put down the regime change campaign by western intelligence assets and their shit stirrers.

hey will already be counting on Russia showing mercy to them and know it's Ukraine that is trying to get them killed

If this is the case, it is unfortunate to say, but there is no loss to Russia to follow through, because the Ukrainian people are therefore already prone to put the blame where it squarely belongs, on ukraine.

In so doing they will with definiteness, tactically end the Zelensky and CIA campaign to drag out the war until a winning position CAN be found.

[–] • 6 pts 3y

The Russian people hate NATO. They are prepared better than any westerners for a long campaign. Putin's favorability only rises the more pressure and pain the West inflicts on ordinary Russians. They know it's a russophobia hatred they had manifested in the West. When westerners are trying to ban Russian cats, music, culture, it's more than just a war. The West is trying to wipe Russians out completely in a genocide. Contrary to popular belief, many Russians actually like being Russian and love their homeland.

There will be no colors revolution. They aren't into globohomo or self flagellation like westerners. They don't bow to colored people. They are happy with who and what they are.

[–] • 4 pts 3y

If its not color revolution, then its engineered crop failure. If its not crop failure, its an engineered plague. If its not plague, its an artificial financial collapse.

The takeaway here is not the tactic, it is that time is NOT on the russian people's side here.

The international regime can hold out longer than russia. I view it as a matter of logistics, but also psychology.

Every nation is looking at ukraine as a referendum on the viability of the petrodollar, and by extension globalism. They aren't deciding if globalism is good , but whether they should fear it. If russia can defy it, then they will conclude they are free to make their own agreements too .

The u.s. would become impotent, overnight. Not because we wouldn't be able to do anything, but simply because, threats and threats by proxy would no longer be sufficient to affect probably any major nations decisions.

It would be the equivalent of a hostage situation, where a hostage says to their kidnappers: "You want to take us all hostage, but you don't have enough bullets to kill us all!"

Thats how I see it.

[–] • 5 pts 3y

China India the middle east have already told the USA to bugger off. They aren't following USA diktat or listening to any threats. That's more than half the world population. Other countries see this.