> If that can happen there is a possibility north America could reorganize and become relevant again in the 30-50 year time frame.
What the u.s will try to do, if it doesn't destroy itself when the petrodollar fails, will be a swing either toward socialism (much more severe than what we already have) or reposition for the "great american comeback", where we revert to 1950s style post-war isolationism and industrial manufacturing, while leveraging a new "neutrality", like the cold war, to stay relevant.
Thats how I see it happening, and in that measure I think, given our mineral wealth, and geographic position, we'll stay moderately or significantly relevant going forward into this century, just on the momentum.
But I still think we're gonna stall, and as competition heats up over the next 1-2 decades, I think that'll push the demographic problem to a breaking point.
Basically I think the model will be the high tech equivalent of eastern europe post-soviet collapse, NOT the "afghanistan of the west" some experts predict. When economies fail, either regimes die and are replaced, or they revert to old culture that was suppressed to make room for said regime. Happened in russia, happened in afghanistan, happened in india.
Everything will be shitty, broken, badly maintained, and corrupt, it just won't be very organized at all.
In principle we'll be less free and poorer, but *in practice* we'll be *more free* because the state won't be able to sustain or afford massive bureaucratic edifices or the enforcement of their edicts unlike now.
The federal government may not go away in name, but its going to experience a very significant downsizing to the point where it will be *practically* irrelevant. This will begin to happen gradually, in fits and bursts, and you will know this is the correct scenario when you see the first time the u.s. congress, deadlocked by political division and short-term outrages between their supporters (mostly driven by ideological differences aggravated by worsening economics), fail to pass a budget in time, causing what the news will label a "mere technical default", a "default based on a technicality."
Maybe it'll be a full default proper, or defaulting on some smaller subsection of our debt (like debt to some pensions or other), but nevertheless it will be called "only *technically* a default."
and that is when you will know the federal government has begun the process of dissolving in all but name.
The failure of the u.s. government to hold states TO policy on say, marijuana, should have been the writing on the wall. On *that* basis, looking back, we could have accurately predicted the fedgov's failure to stop constitutional carry, state's refusing the control of the CDC, etc.
That trend is precisely because the fedgov is moribund as the u.s. dollar, and everyone knows it, no one wants to say it (except russia), and the fedgov is out of options to do anything about it.
Being a senator or federal reserve chair, or DoD executive, or boardroom member at blackrock/vanguard/goldman right now must be like being a dying patient in a hospital, almost fully immobilized, while watching your own heart beat fail on the EKG.
• 3y
(edited 3y )
The u.s. is a paper tiger.
Afghanistan is the proof.
There will be saber rattling over taiwan, with china's implicit approval no less, to intimidate russia.
But this is for all the poker chips on the table, otherwise we wouldn't see the kind of response that we do, and thats what makes it so obvious.
They want to convince Russia, russia's citizens, and russia's ruling class, that they "made a mistake" by invading ukraine, "made a mistake by continuing to stay in ukraine", and that "russia will lose!"
This is no different than a cowardly drunk threatening a man who is twice as tough and physically fit as him. This is the exact same scenario. The u.s. is the drunk, while russia is the sober man here.
If Russia hold's its position, it will win. It can survive nuclear war even.
The u.s. can't survive, with or without a nuclear war.
In fact, Russia's actions now aren't killing american hegemony, they're only speeding up a process that was already happening.
Fate itself is on Russia's side, the only question is if Putin's regime will hold the line.
This is it. Every single nation is questioning the status of the dollar, even Saudi Arabia.
Trust me when I write this, because a month before Russia invaded, when everyone, even major experts, were saying Russia wouldn't invade, I called it. I predicted he would, against all evidence to the contrary.
This tells us something important that the u.s. regime and DoD don't want anyone to comprehend:
Major police-maker predictions aren't based on facts, they're based on the regime's fears .
Their playbook is the same: Always use proxies propagandists to spread the message "don't fight back, thats what THEY (the u.s. and internationalist clique) want!"
It's always some variation of that. The messages are always "don't fight back", "the u.s. is invincible", "everyone besides us is bluffing". Is this the stance of a sane and sober nation?
We all know from experience, the ones who boast of their own invincibility, or discourage pushback, are the ones trying to avoid having to fight .
The only reason a nation avoids a fight, especially over a major source of natural gas (and thus fertilizer), is because its already done the math and concluded it can't win.
America is a paper tiger and internally it's regime is vulnerable and afraid of its own shadow.
Those nations who stand against the illegitimate occupation government in America, would be mistaken to be uncertain about outcomes here. It would be a mistake to retreat. To give the opponent a chance to regroup, and catch its breathe.
If russia retreats from this fight, America will come back with fury, and annihilate russia without mercy. America's government, and the internationalists running ukraine, are cornered rats, and if given an ounce of mercy, or an inch of fighting room, will bleed russia and any other nation to death.
Sane and sober government only returns to the u.s. when the petrodollar scheme is dead.
To do that, the u.s. must not be allowed time to turn the narrative tide against russia. This is critical. Time is the ally of the u.s. even though this is a war of attrition. Time is an advantage to the u.s. here, because they're counting on the economic blockades to upset and make the russian people ripe for a color revolution, which is the only way the u.s. can depose putin's government. If the u.s. can drag it on long enough, it is guaranteed to win the propaganda war, yes, even in russia.
Russia playing isolationist is a mistake, because the international understand how to respond to this, they have a playbook for this. Russias policy here is reactionary, when it should be active . The russians are being accused of misinformation when from what I can see they're producing very little misinformation, nor propaganda.
REMEMBER the u.s. lies and signals about what it fears . It's why we have so much censorship in the u.s.
And what does the u.s. and its international regime fear? They already told you! They fear u.s. propaganda having to compete with russian propaganda. It's why they have accused the russian government of producing misinformation so frequently. The u.s. fears russia doing just that, producing propaganda, and so, by waging an all-out-campaign of accusing russia of misinformation, they hope, to trick russia into taking a disadvantageous position, a "high road" where russia refuses to compete with u.s. propaganda.
Why?
Because u.s. propaganda will lose, because it is based on lies. And lies can't defeat propaganda based on truth.
If russia chooses to play this fight straight, and doesn't take an active a more active role in shaping the narrative, russia will lose.
It's not about appealing to western audiences. I mean to say that russia will lose because eventually the u.s. will convince the u.s. public, or drag it along, into any action, except war. Theres a lot the u.s. can do to russia without going to war.
So by over-committing to the fight, russia can end this before the u.s. can properly be convinced to go all in. If america is given time, it will first drag the public into agreeing with any policy, and then the u.s. will use every single tool at its disposal to win. And while america will likely lose anyway, russia will still be bled dry, and left vulnerable to its neighbors. Maybe thats the intention.
Retreat means the u.s. destroys russia--eventually. Like cutting off someone's oxygen.
Fighting at the current pace, means the u.s. reorganizes its efforts, and eventually finds a strategy that wins and deposes Putin et al.
Playing the war fairly, isolationist, and refusing to go big on a propaganda means russia absolutely loses against American propaganda, when propaganda is the weakest most depleted and distrusted weapon in America's arsenal.
Russia has more international nation-state allies than it realizes. Some of them now are making moves counter to russia, because they fear the u.s.
If Russia is bold, and goes all in, and continues the fight, and doubles the pace, and broadens the scope of its propaganda, then these allies will come around to supporting Russia, and in two years time the u.s. petrodollar and by extent u.s. hegemony, will be dead for good.
↓ expand content
The u.s. is a paper tiger.
Afghanistan is the proof.
There will be saber rattling over taiwan, with china's implicit approval no less, to intimidate russia.
But this is for all the poker chips on the table, otherwise we wouldn't see the kind of response that we do, and thats what makes it so obvious.
They want to convince Russia, russia's citizens, and russia's ruling class, that they "made a mistake" by invading ukraine, "made a mistake by continuing to stay in ukraine", and that "russia will lose!"
This is no different than a cowardly drunk threatening a man who is twice as tough and physically fit as him. This is the exact same scenario. The u.s. is the drunk, while russia is the sober man here.
If Russia hold's its position, it **will** win. It can survive nuclear war even.
The u.s. can't survive, with or without a nuclear war.
In fact, Russia's actions now aren't killing american hegemony, they're only speeding up a process that was already happening.
Fate itself is on Russia's side, the only question is if Putin's regime will hold the line.
This is it. Every single nation is questioning the status of the dollar, even Saudi Arabia.
Trust me when I write this, because a month before Russia invaded, when everyone, even major experts, were saying Russia wouldn't invade, I called it. I predicted he would, against all evidence to the contrary.
This tells us something important that the u.s. regime and DoD don't want anyone to comprehend:
Major police-maker predictions aren't based on facts, they're based on the regime's **fears**.
Their playbook is the same:
Always use proxies propagandists to spread the message "don't fight back, thats what THEY (the u.s. and internationalist clique) want!"
It's *always* some variation of that. The messages are always "don't fight back", "the u.s. is invincible", "everyone besides us is bluffing".
Is this the stance of a sane and sober nation?
We all know from experience, the ones who boast of their own invincibility, or discourage pushback, are the ones *trying to avoid having to fight*.
The only reason a nation avoids a fight, especially over a major source of natural gas (and thus fertilizer), is because its *already done the math* and concluded it can't win.
America is a paper tiger and internally it's regime is vulnerable and afraid of its own shadow.
Those nations who stand against the illegitimate occupation government in America, would be mistaken to be uncertain about outcomes here.
It would be a mistake to retreat. To give the opponent a chance to regroup, and catch its breathe.
If russia retreats from this fight, America will come back with fury, and annihilate russia without mercy. America's government, and the internationalists running ukraine, are cornered rats, and if given an ounce of mercy, or an inch of fighting room, will bleed russia and any other nation to death.
Sane and sober government only returns to the u.s. when the petrodollar scheme is dead.
To do that, the u.s. must not be allowed time to turn the narrative tide against russia. This is critical. Time is the ally of the u.s. even though this is a war of attrition. Time is an advantage to the u.s. here, because they're counting on the economic blockades to upset and make the russian people ripe for a color revolution, which is the only way the u.s. can depose putin's government. If the u.s. can drag it on long enough, it is guaranteed to win the propaganda war, yes, even in russia.
Russia playing isolationist is a mistake, because the international understand how to respond to this, they have a playbook for this.
Russias policy here is reactionary, when it should be *active*. The russians are being accused of misinformation when from what I can see they're producing very little misinformation, nor propaganda.
REMEMBER the u.s. lies and signals about *what it fears*.
It's why we have so much censorship in the u.s.
And what does the u.s. and its international regime fear? They already told you! They fear u.s. propaganda having to compete with russian propaganda.
It's **why** they have accused the russian government of producing misinformation so frequently. The u.s. fears russia doing *just* that, producing propaganda, and so, by waging an all-out-campaign of accusing russia of misinformation, they hope, to trick russia into taking a disadvantageous position, a "high road" where russia refuses to compete with u.s. propaganda.
Why?
Because u.s. propaganda will lose, because it is based on lies. And lies can't defeat propaganda based on truth.
If russia chooses to play this fight straight, and doesn't take an active a *more active role* in shaping the narrative, russia will lose.
It's not about appealing to western audiences. I mean to say that russia will lose because eventually the u.s. will convince the u.s. public, or drag it along, into any action, *except* war. Theres a lot the u.s. can do to russia without going to war.
So by *over-committing* to the fight, russia can end this before the u.s. can properly be convinced to go all in. If america is given time, it will first drag the public into agreeing with any policy, and then the u.s. will use *every single tool at its disposal* to win. And while america will likely lose anyway, russia will still be bled dry, and left vulnerable to its neighbors. Maybe thats the intention.
Retreat means the u.s. destroys russia--eventually. Like cutting off someone's oxygen.
Fighting at the current pace, means the u.s. reorganizes its efforts, and eventually finds a strategy that wins and deposes Putin et al.
Playing the war fairly, isolationist, and **refusing to go big on a propaganda** means russia absolutely loses against *American* propaganda, when propaganda is the *weakest most depleted and distrusted* weapon in America's arsenal.
Russia has more international nation-state allies than it realizes. Some of them now are making moves counter to russia, because they fear the u.s.
If Russia is bold, and goes all in, and continues the fight, and doubles the pace, and broadens the scope of its propaganda, then these allies **will** come around to supporting Russia, and in two years time the u.s. petrodollar and by extent u.s. hegemony, will be dead for good.
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