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That and they're not deprived and pushed far enough into a corner yet.

Its a combination of that and logistics.

This is basically a repost of a thread conversation I was having, so take it with a grain of salt, but heres the numbers from what I can see:

If people knew they had a real chance at winning, or a stalemate that lead to concessions, I think the public attitude on the right would change pretty fast.

Basically, from what I've seen on the net, the universal sentiment among those who appear pro-conflict is that its not a viable fight. Its not a conflict our side could win given the lack of the ability to shape public perception about the fight.

For the record, I think the current "willing participant" rate for any sort of civil conflict is, in at least red counties, somewhere between 1.6% and 3.3%, thats just from things I've heard in the grocery line and other places.

Additionally,

if the population is 327,000,000 in the u.s.

and 40 million (lets say thats an underestimate, and go with 60 million) are immigrants, related to immigrants, or foreign born.

and discounting 13% of the population (blacks), with only 10% being conservative, that leaves

228,741,000 people, or

114,370,500 conservatives.

57,185,250 or about that many potential combatants (conservative and male). And then, lets look at the reasonable percentage of men who could and would fight in bulk:

18-20: 3.7% or 5.931 million 21-44: 31.9% 51.658 million

Or about 57.589 million males total. Or 28.7945 million males total that might be righwing, assuming the political spectrum is uniform across age groups (its not).

If the radicalization rate is, on average 2.45%, thats 705,465.25 fighting age rightwing males, willing, if approached with a legitimate well-equipped and well-funded movement, to join as warm bodies.

Right below the threshold of political relevancy.

I guess thats why the regime is scared.

Of those, maybe 10% can be expected to be of any actual use or participation, so about 70,545. And maybe 3500-7000 that might be actual fighters.

Thats still a lot of damage, and would be catastrophic for the regime, but it'd never be allowed to get off the ground.

And its likely why DC spends so much money and time on contractors (spies, informants, and infiltration operations). Theres something like 60,000 unaccountable federal contractors who job solely consists of doing things like creating fake identities for federal officials an agents, registering houses, cars, weapons, phones, boats, and any other equipment or purchases in their names, to conceal federal operations.

This also doesn't account for the effect of "both sides" joining a civil conflict. For example, how many people saw the Waukesha attack, or the riots in 2020, and decided if there was a civil war they'd join? How many people on the left saw J6 (as distorted and misrepresented as that event was) and decided if the right decides to show up for a fight so would they?

What percentage of the right is basically of the sentiment that if the left continues on the way it is, it'll come down to either starting or joining a conflict?

We don't have those numbers, but when you do calculations and analyses, you can't just say "what percentage of our side is willing?" You also have to assess the sentiments of the otherside , because what they do impacts the percentages on our side.

As it stands, I see now what the DoD was claiming a decade ago, a fights brewing. But unlike their panic now, I don't see it happening for maybe another 1-3 years, 2-5 at the latest.

Right now the willing-participation rate seems to be right below the ignition threshold, so its something to keep watching.

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That and they're not deprived and pushed far enough into a corner yet. Its a combination of that and logistics. This is basically a repost of a thread conversation I was having, so take it with a grain of salt, but heres the numbers from what I can see: If people *knew* they had a real chance at winning, or a stalemate that lead to concessions, I think the public attitude on the right would change pretty fast. Basically, from what I've seen on the net, the universal sentiment among those who appear pro-conflict is that its not a viable fight. Its not a conflict our side could win given the lack of the ability to shape public perception about the fight. For the record, I think the current "willing participant" rate for any sort of civil conflict is, in at least red counties, somewhere between 1.6% and 3.3%, thats just from things I've heard in the grocery line and other places. Additionally, if the population is 327,000,000 in the u.s. and 40 million (lets say thats an underestimate, and go with 60 million) are immigrants, related *to* immigrants, or foreign born. and discounting 13% of the population (blacks), with only 10% being conservative, that leaves 228,741,000 people, or 114,370,500 conservatives. 57,185,250 or about that many potential combatants (conservative and male). And then, lets look at the reasonable percentage of men who *could* and *would* fight in bulk: 18-20: 3.7% or 5.931 million 21-44: 31.9% 51.658 million Or about 57.589 million males total. Or 28.7945 million males total that *might* be righwing, assuming the political spectrum is uniform across age groups (its not). If the radicalization rate is, on average 2.45%, thats 705,465.25 fighting age rightwing males, willing, if approached with a legitimate well-equipped and well-funded movement, to join as warm bodies. Right below the threshold of political relevancy. I guess thats why the regime is scared. Of those, maybe 10% can be expected to be of any actual use or participation, so about 70,545. And maybe 3500-7000 that might be actual fighters. Thats still a lot of damage, and would be catastrophic for the regime, but it'd never be allowed to get off the ground. And its likely why DC spends so much money and time on contractors (spies, informants, and infiltration operations). Theres something like 60,000 unaccountable federal contractors who job solely consists of doing things like creating fake identities for federal officials an agents, registering houses, cars, weapons, phones, boats, and any other equipment or purchases in their names, to conceal federal operations. This also doesn't account for the effect of "both sides" joining a civil conflict. For example, how many people saw the Waukesha attack, or the riots in 2020, and decided if there was a civil war they'd join? How many people on the left saw J6 (as distorted and misrepresented as that event was) and decided if the right decides to show up for a fight so would they? What percentage of the right is basically of the sentiment that if the left continues on the way it is, it'll come down to either starting or joining a conflict? We don't have those numbers, but when you do calculations and analyses, you can't just say "what percentage of our side is willing?" You also have to assess the sentiments of the *otherside*, because what *they* do **impacts** the percentages on our side. As it stands, I see now what the DoD was claiming a decade ago, a fights brewing. But unlike their panic now, I don't see it happening for maybe another 1-3 years, 2-5 at the latest. Right now the willing-participation rate seems to be right below the ignition threshold, so its something to keep watching.

(post is archived)

[–] 2 pts 3y (edited 3y)

William Luther Pierce argued for WW3. Not as the best solution but better than leaving the US on its current course "because that course leads to certain extinction for our people." America would essentially be destroyed but least it would be a clean slate for America 2.0, the 4th Reich, whatever you wanna call it.

[–] 0 pt 3y (edited 3y)

If you read back to napoleon, he had networks of spies everywhere, helping him, ahead of many invasions. Don't know if it had anything to do with his public declarations supporting Judaism and emancipation.

But I'll tell you this: Alexander the great also did something similar.

WW3 may be a burn-flat that gives us a fresh start, but you also have to look at the likely configuration of whos left after. You have to ask "what powers will survive the conflict, in whatever capacity they have left? And are any of the potential survivors within our ability to control or on our side?"

In all cases the answer is still no.

Instead what the survivor nations will do will likely focus on conscription, rapid mass re-industrialization and a tenfold increase in base-line automation (robotics in every day use). Yes theres the argument of "new dark ages", "no power grid", but you'll be surprised by the contingencies put in place by many nations and funded by international banks.

It will not be mad max. It'll be more like 1984, where all sorts of shit is in utter shambles from the bombs. Subsistence living, and a fuckton of spies drawn from the regular population because living in the husk of a mansion will be preferable to living in a refugee camp. Spying will be the national make-work job. And thats how you get the new stasi. I write this because its important to what I'll say next: There is the idea that after ww3 or a similar disaster, the CONUS occupation government will be in such shambles, they will not have the resources to police and control large segment of the population.

This will only be temporarily true, and there are likely contingencies already in place, including the DoD using regional commands to conscript vast swaths of local survivors as spies, informants, and make-work enforcers, and rewarding them with rations, or reallocation of private property, whats left of it to confiscate anyway. There will also be heavy use of automated gorgon-stare tech (already in use in some u.s. cities), for wide regions, and drones to map, track, and restrict the movement of survivors. Things like "the cajun navy" won't even be fought. They'll be 'deputized', both in rescue and relief, but also in enforcement. The purpose of this is two fold: manpower, and because the guys who would act as an effective organizing alternative to the occupation, now have to choose between using their resources for what they want to do, which is helping people, vs. not being able to help people and on top of that wasting those resources fighting an opponent that while greatly weakened, is still likely vastly better equipped and dangerous.

So if or when ww3 comes, or some other disaster that threatens western nations, like the u.s. occupation, there has to be a hardliner movement that already exists. And the hardliners main missions have to be the following:

  1. organize the resources effectively within their respective area.

  2. force cooperation between wildly different groups, towards a common goal, and against a common foe.

  3. to punish or make it far too costly for anyone to defect to helping the occupation. To make it far too risky, regardless what reward is offered, to aid the occupation and its bureaucrats and footsoldiers. They should arrive in a town or community, post-disaster, and no one should even want help from them. They should be so thoroughly rejected by the local population, the effect would be the same as an ICE squad arriving in a barrio or DEA task force arriving in a chicago neighborhood: no one cooperates, everyone tells them to get the fuck out. The idea is "everywhere a flash point. Everywhere a brushfire." proverbially speaking. So that the end effect is that the government, in shambles, sees the resistance across the board as it were, and decides not to waste resources on a campaign that will just end up turning into a war of attrition.

Without what I just outlined, counting on ww3 to save us is a pipedream.

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