Well, they overlook the last jobs report. The one where they expected 2 million new jobs and got nowhere near that.
You see, a huge number of those jobs were lost when their employers went out of business during covid. They didn't close temporarily, they abandoned their locations. They no longer operate as going concerns. There was little to no compensation issued for that. Restarting that requires capital, and that capital is gone. The space they occupied is now desperate for new tenants. Anybody who can pay.
The futures market is now driving prices in anticipation of increased demand. Yes, demand is increasing, but no, it isn't going to be an immediate full restoration to previous quantities, and then not for quite some time. The always fragile small business sector, the same one that creates most of the jobs, does not simply jump back to full capacity overnight. That takes time, and restoring this last wedge of employment in the economy will prove most stubborn indeed. Two or three years at the very least.
So, I fear demand for actual physical goods must be subdued in the medium run, because there are not going to be the incomes and revenues needed to support it. Yes demand is up in the rural areas, as people flee the urban areas.... demand is also way down in the urban areas, and it isn't coming back any time soon. The big move rural, well, a lot of that is being financed by consumers spending accumulated savings - they are dipping into their equity to make this happen. It's temporary spending that subsides dramatically once they get resettled. Fix the roof and buy a new lawn mower kind of spending. One time purchases that last for many years.
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