That's not how the math works...
There were 5,800 "breakthrough" infections out of 115 million vaccinated (that we know of, we know the CDC is gaming the PCR tests for vaccinated people). Of those 396 were hospitalized (7%) 74 died (1.3%)
So, if you catch COVID after being vaccinated, your chances of death are 1.3%, according to the CDC's politi-facts. That's significantly higher than the death rate for COVID. I do not trust the CDC's numbers, but this is something to watch very carefully. Remember, we were told these vaccines would LESSEN the symptoms if you caught COVID, not increase the death and hospitalization rates. So they lied.
It’s a subset of a subset so of course the percentage probability will increase after the first criteria has been met.
It’s like saying what are the chances of winning the lottery and then rolling a 6 on a dice? Not very high. One in six million.
But what is the chance of a lottery winner rolling a 6? One in six.
With the CDC's history, you cannot trust the 5,800 number. They are a marketing arm of big pharma. They openly stated they were going to use 28 PCR cycles to test for "breakthroughs" with vaccinated people, while leaving PCR tests for non-vaccinated at the default 40 cycles. 28 cycles creates 4000x less detectable material than 40 cycles. That's only the numbers gaming that they admitted to officially. You can bet that there is more. The CDC is not honest.
What is important here is that of the 5,800 breakthroughs they admitted, 1.3% died. That's a higher death rate than COVID, and, according to their numbers, means the vaccines make you sicker if you catch COVID. They claimed it lessened symptoms.
The numbers do not add up, and that's never a good sign. You should assume they are gaming all of the numbers and the truth is being withheld, not analyze their numbers on face value! With the CDC, don't believe their numbers. Look for discrepancies, question, and if things look fishy, exercise extreme caution, because it probably smells fishy for a reason.
You are wasting your time with this guy he rejects any data that doesn't agree with his opinion.
Your analogy doesn't make sense when comparing the death rate of vaccinated and unvaccinated covid deaths. Both of them "won the lottery" and one group has a significantly higher death rate. That means that getting vaccinated and then catching covid increases your chance of death.
No. Look.
Take 20,000 people. 10,000 of them are not given a vax(A), 10,000 are given a vax(B).
5000 of group A then develop covid symptoms, of which 50 die (1% of 5000 but 0.5% of 10000)
2000 of group B develop covid symptoms, of which 30 die. (1.5% of 2000 but 0.3% of 10000)
What you’re looking at is the 1% in group A and 1.5% group B, giving the illusion that the vaccinated group have a higher death rate when the reality is 60% fewer people died within the vaccinated group.
So, if you catch COVID after being vaccinated, your chances of death are 1.3%, according to the CDC's politi-facts. That's significantly higher than the death rate for COVID.
That's a useless bit of information. That's like calculating the odds of losing your stutter if you get struck by lightning. What tells the story is the probability of getting infected and dying of covid without the vax and with the vax. If you're just calculating from CDC numbers it looks like this:
| Risk of getting the rona | Risk of dying from the rona | |
|---|---|---|
| No vax | 0.0984 | 0.00175 |
| Vax | 0.00009 | 0.000001152 |
That's blatantly false data. You can't extrapolate the "risk" of catching COVID based on the CDC's data. They use 28 cycle PCR tests for vaccinated people and 40 for unvaccinated. Nice try though.
Then you can't use their data for the "risk" of catching COVID after getting the vax either.
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