There has long been heated debate over whether the United States should defend Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion, but little consideration to whether it successfully can. An unemotional assessment of the military capabilities of both China and the United States reveals the odds are uncomfortably high that the U.S. forces would be defeated in a war with China over Taiwan. What’s worse, even achieving a tactical victory could result in a devastating strategic loss. That’s not to say, however, that there aren’t alternative strategies to effectively preserve U.S. interests and at an affordable cost.
I'm going to have to read more later, but this opening has me interested.
China, Russia, and Iran are united. The west is divided. Unity is strength. Diversity + Proximity = War. The only good thing about China being on the war path is that it's a jolt of "K".
From the article:
The best way America can help Taiwan and dissuade China from using force is to encourage all the friendly countries of the Asia-Pacific region—not only Taiwan—to engage in a buildup of its own self-defense capabilities. China has famously hardened its defenses against the United States by means of anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) which would impose a severe cost on the United States for any attack against China. Taiwan should do the same.
Taipei should continue to bolster its defenses through an A2/AD strategy of its own so that the cost of forcible unification by China would be so significant—and ultimate success would not be guaranteed—that the Communist Party leaders in Beijing would not risk the potential loss. Even that, it must be admitted, would be no guarantee that China would never attack Taiwan. But for American policy, it doesn’t make sense to risk military defeat or financial ruin when our interests are not directly threatened.
I'm loath to commit US troops to yet another endless war when we have so much that needs doing here. ASPAC needs to step up to where we can provide material help without decimating our armed services.
I don't think Asian countries are going to replicate the parasitic approach to military alliances that European countries employed during the late cold war to the present. It's contrary to K.
(post is archived)