A = Amount your paying to the IRS R = chance you'll get caught P = Amount you'll have to pay back Let's say the amount you pay the IRS over a lifetime is $1 million A = 1,000,000 The chance of getting caught is 1% R = 0.01 Amount you'll have to pay back is amount originally owed plus 20% P = A * 1.2 Total Profit = (A * (1-R)) - (P*R) Total Profit = $978,000 Let's say higher numbers. Amount you have to pay back is 2x and chance of getting caught is 30% Profit = $100,000 Statistically speaking it always pays to just not pay your income taxes.