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Amazon Prime Days have been doubled to four, simply confirming just how this year really is different for the consumer economy. It is merely the latest to testify for highly unusual weakness. Along with a sharp drop in credit card usage, the historically unusual decline in weekly worker earnings show exactly why there are four Prime Days this year.

Amazon Prime Days have been doubled to four, simply confirming just how this year really is different for the consumer economy. It is merely the latest to testify for highly unusual weakness. Along with a sharp drop in credit card usage, the historically unusual decline in weekly worker earnings show exactly why there are four Prime Days this year.

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[–] 0 pt

I agree with most of his points. I'm not participating in Prime Days because Bezos and most of the deals are Chinese junk.

I think Powell's high interest rates with the effects of Biden's inflation created the current situation. Credit card balances increased more dramatically, increasing carry costs and making new purchases more expensive because of prior inflation. It appeared from his chart that American credit card balances/expenses grew ~16% yoy. People decided to stop buying as much and/or pay down balances because they realize they are being bled to death by credit card interest rates and that is no longer sustainable.

Payrolls have seen a lot of once overpaid, now unemployed federal workers (remember the stories about DC RE and years of inventory suddenly flooding that market as absorption rates began to fall about 3 months ago). Also if there is any truth left in the BLS, American employment is increasing as immigrant employment is cratering.

In the end I sense we might be exporting deflation around the world as they scrape to pay tariffs and keep product pricing attractive to the American consumer. Meanwile, all the trillions of investment in America will not be noticed for ~6-12 months as business plans are created, CRE purchases and permitting, people are hired to build the new factories and establish supply chains, then in about a year or more we should see the leading edge of a big bump in demand for people to fill those factories and wage inflation should ensue.

They planned to crash the American economy during the Trump (or Kamala) term, Powell and The Fed are still working on that or to at least diminish Trump's economic revival. Trump has fought to do what he can to supercharge the economy but it will take time to realize those benefits and results, meanwhile Powell is not cooperating. Interest should be around the 2% rate now that inflation reportedly is tamed.