9:05 does china change napier's march 2021 inflation prediction 9:45 china's managed exchange rate and tight monetary policy 11:00 china contagion is an exchange rate, not property, crisis 12:05 why china is inflationary, not deflationary (tariffs, capex investment to replace china supply chain) 14:40 central bankers are impotent 16:15 yield curve vs 16:45 central banks cannot expand balance sheets infinitely as it adds to inflation 17:15 phase 2 financial repression: CB's savings institutions to buy bonds 17:45 governments supply supply of money through commercial bank credit control 18:50 PBOC curve balls to the world 20:20 emphasising government control of money, not central bankers 23:40 debt to gdp is so high 24:00 bond bull market over? (you don't lose money on nominal, but do on real terms) 25:40 equities bullish or bearish? complicated; there will be winners in this high inflation low interest environment; must stock pick 27:15 how will inflation influence equities? 28:00 when inflation goes up to 4%, equities go up (growth faster than discount rate); but at 4% inflation, CB's turn up discount rate, affecting growth rate, affecting equitites 30:10 peculiar end to equities inflation (1940's scenario, ie financial repression) 31:30 phase 2 financial repression. get your money out of the country (gov't will use your savings for their financial goals) 32:30 hypothetical bretton woods scenario today unlikely 33:20 china and europe VS usa private sector debt service ratio could crack the former 35:10 russell is bullish US dollar (because it's the last that can handle higher interest rates; last country for financial repression to arrive) 37:05 big equities crash scenario vs equities to the moon scenario 40:50 why is gold not rising? 43:20 ESG effect on bitcoin vs gold 44:10 gold market is small vs paper assets 44:45 value of gold vs real interest rates (delayed price response; too many financial asset alternatives to gold) 46:50 new book about asian financial crisis