10:40 inflation trade based on promise of magic vaccines has reversed since March 2021 12:30 anecdote about French luxury perfume maker cannot deliver perfumes of because of non-delivery of plastic parts from China. no problem with glass bottles made in France and Italy 18:30 2 kinds of inflation - 1st run inflation (self-limiting inflation: prices rise, demand drops, prices drop again) and 2nd run inflation (permanent price rise) 20:25 historical example of 1st vs 2nd run inflation 21:45 baby boomers retirement feeding into 22:30 structural unemployment will feed into philips curve 23:55 workers will bargain for higher wages 29:45 wage negotiation by german unions include cpi 32:30 intergenerational wealth transfer through inflation (similar to russell napier theory) 35:50 actionable recommendation - dovish fed