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273

...is the general mainstream narrative correct? That there is plenty of pent-up demand during the lockdowns that will inevitably result in a roaring 20's type period (which in itself was preceded by a pandemic)?

Or maybe, it's all a function of money.

Human demand for money is infinite.

In the 1920's, it was satiated by true productivity growth in the US economy by new technologies like mass electrification and communication, automobiles. radio and home appliances.

In the 1930's, money contracted with credit contraction post-1929 crash, so there was no more money to be had.

WW2 may truly be a psychological shift in thrift mentality if one saw their cities, and everything they owned, bombed to the ground.

Maybe this "pandemic" will be of the money contraction variety with a bit of psychological WW2 type of mental damage in the sense that plenty of money and financial support, like rent moratorium, was given away and spent like a drunken sailor into crypto and stonks and online shopping. Then the punchbowl will be taketh away and there's no money to replace it. The sudden disappearance of free money could cause it to be permanent psychological phenomenon. The young may swear to never to spend again as if they were psychologically tortured.

...is the general mainstream narrative correct? That there is plenty of pent-up demand during the lockdowns that will inevitably result in a roaring 20's type period (which in itself was preceded by a pandemic)? Or maybe, it's all a function of money. Human demand for money is infinite. In the 1920's, it was satiated by true productivity growth in the US economy by new technologies like mass electrification and communication, automobiles. radio and home appliances. In the 1930's, money contracted with credit contraction post-1929 crash, so there was no more money to be had. WW2 may truly be a psychological shift in thrift mentality if one saw their cities, and everything they owned, bombed to the ground. Maybe this "pandemic" will be of the money contraction variety with a bit of psychological WW2 type of mental damage in the sense that plenty of money and financial support, like rent moratorium, was given away and spent like a drunken sailor into crypto and stonks and online shopping. Then the punchbowl will be taketh away and there's no money to replace it. The sudden disappearance of free money could cause it to be permanent psychological phenomenon. The young may swear to never to spend again as if they were psychologically tortured.

(post is archived)

[–] 0 pt (edited )

I think the future of asset prices is absolutely inflationary.

Like you mentioned with the supply chain disruptions, the decrease in supply will put upward pressure on prices. The drop off in demand should not effect the core of US GDP (Housing, healthcare, automobiles), as those things are pretty much a given for a functioning economy. Not saying that it can't, but I believe costs will be subsidized by lenders and government programs/spending. (more inflationary pressure)

The only question on my mind is "what about wages"? Without wage inflation the demand problem will only exacerbate itself while also creating levels of unimaginable poverty. Even if wages inflate though we are probably looking at real scarcity of supply going forward.

Personally myself I'm waiting to see when bank cash/collateral requirements change and all this reverse repo money finds its way to equities and commodities.

EDIT: Maybe thats how low wages will be supplemented by employers? If contributions generate yearly returns in the north of 20% or more.

[+] [deleted] 0 pt