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[–] • 2 pts (edited )

serious disease

You guys seem to have decided early on that this virus is a terrible happening (presumably because it would benefit your cause by upending social order). And it appears to me you've hyped it so much you aren't able to change your minds.

So here you are, grandstanding on the "serious disease" that's caused a pitiful... looks it up ...107,775 worldwide deaths. Maybe you'll say that's a lot, which would show you don't have much perspective. Or maybe you'll say the deaths are underreported, even though they are doing everything in their power to overreport (cdc.gov) by claiming everyone who died WITH Corona died OF corona. Or maybe you'll say the worst is yet to come, even though IT'S APRIL.

Anyway, time will prove one of us wrong. If it's me I'll be able to admit it. If by, say, the end of May the total deaths from acute viral respiratory infections were comparable to previous years, would you revise your estimation of the seriousness of this virus? Or would you claim that's evidence we "flattened the curve" by taking these extreme measures and countries that didn't lock down are lying about their death tolls? From what I can tell this is either literally the flu, or something that is not much worse than a normal year's flu.

Here's a neat tool @x0x7 linked me. Orange line is Sweden. https://codelike.com/corona-dashboard/?countries=DE,IT,US,SE,GB&yaxis=normalized&scale=logarithmic

edit:

I guess my point is "a community that made that decision" isn't very attractive if the community is stupid. The good news (for your purposes) is the bar is already set really low.

[–] • 1 pt

You guys seem to have decided early on that this virus is a terrible happening

Nah just the precautionary principle.

(presumably because it would benefit your cause by upending social order)

We don't need that to do our thing. In fact society lasting a little longer until we are established would be better for us.

But we have viable plans for both scenarios.

And it appears to me you've hyped it so much you aren't able to change your minds.

  1. The precautions I suggested early on would NOT have crashed the economy so keep that in mind.
  2. I won't care if I was wrong and have to admit that - for that matter I have never said I 100% believe one or the other. I take pride in being cautious.
  3. We can only act on the information we have and all of my suggestions to people have been easy and cheap to do.

If by, say, the end of May the total deaths from acute viral respiratory infections were comparable to previous years, would you revise your estimation of the seriousness of this virus?

I would, but it seems we are surpassing the normal total death rate in some places. That could indicate something bad is going on.

I must admit I'm confused because looking at Dream Princess and South Korea you would expect a mere 2.5% fatality rate, but that low number can't explain places with several times the normal total deaths.

Btw I think we will know by start of May already how bad it is.

Or would you claim that's evidence we "flattened the curve" by taking these extreme measures

The measures have been half hearted despite their economic destruction so have only delayed the spread. I am assuming rampant spread so the only question remaining is how bad the virus really is and why different regions see such different outcomes.

are lying about their death tolls?

If they can hide the deaths then the virus is too mild to truly disrupt society beyond financial crisis that was coming anyway.

If it's bad they won't be able to hide the deaths.

I'm not going to invent complex conspiracies in the first case no.

[–] • 1 pt

Alright, well at least your outlook from here is somewhat reasonable. I think there is already enough info out there to conclude this is not nearly as serious as the 2017-2018 flu, which we didn't panic over. Not to mention, if you have any gut sense for bullshit you could just look at the talking heads and know something is up.

A 2.5% mortality rate would be extreme -- that would actually be a very serious virus. However, we know these mortality rates are not anywhere near accurate because they are being calculated off positive cases, rather than an estimate of the total number of people infected with the virus. You can take a look at how the CDC measures flu mortality rate (cdc.gov) and see that this is totally different from the way Corona estimates are arrived at.

I think you should have figured out the severity of this by now and realized that the response is absolutely not appropriate for the level of threat that it was. There is no big exponential death spike coming, just an economic collapse and whatever insane authoritarian agendas move in in the wake. But if you're able to admit you were wrong at some point there's at least some hope that you won't be as trusting of the mainstream narrative next time.

[–] • 1 pt

won't be as trusting of the mainstream narrative next time.

That's unfair. I started warning people while the MSM was telling people to hug Chinese and take vacations.

A 2.5% mortality rate would be extreme -- that would actually be a very serious virus. However, we know these mortality rates are not anywhere near accurate because they are being calculated off positive cases

South Korea has done very aggressive testing to the point of totally controlling the virus.

For now I believe their numbers are accurate. Their current fatality rate is 2%. It's about 2.5% for the Dream Princess (a closed group) if you include the people that have been in critical condition for more than a month as dead. 1.54% otherwise.