is a graph of NTSB investigations for Boeing and Airbus with all recorded incidents. Yes, I know I'm "trusting the science" with NTSB. So they have a system called which allows you to query investigations and includes investigations not completed.
Here's a chart since 2015 with total incidents involving Boeing and Airbus with low/high outlier limits. I scaled up the 2024 value for a full year and that last point is a bullshit number. If we believe the bullshit number then Boeing is on track for a normal year and Airbus is on track for a good year.
Anyhow, I have more confidence in Boeing than Airbus based on this. Boeing is generally around 100/year for their fleet without too much upward variation except for 2023. Airbus has three times as many "bad years" in this range, and a bad year for Airbus looks more off of trend than Boeing's single bad year. You have to account for the different fleet sizes - there is not a 1:1 population ratio between Airbus and Boeing. Last I checked the 737-800 was the most common airplane in the sky. This chart does not account for severity - an open cargo door counts as much as a nose-dive into the ocean. Of course you can't have many incidents when the FAA grounds all of your 737-MAX, so who knows.
[Pic related](https://www.imgbly.com/ib/9i3VqzrUQ5.png) is a graph of NTSB investigations for Boeing and Airbus with all recorded incidents. Yes, I know I'm "trusting the science" with NTSB. So they have a system called [CAROL](https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/landing-page) which allows you to query investigations and includes investigations not completed.
Here's a chart since 2015 with total incidents involving Boeing and Airbus with low/high outlier limits. I scaled up the 2024 value for a full year and that last point is a bullshit number. If we believe the bullshit number then Boeing is on track for a normal year and Airbus is on track for a good year.
Anyhow, I have more confidence in Boeing than Airbus based on this. Boeing is generally around 100/year for their fleet without too much upward variation except for 2023. Airbus has three times as many "bad years" in this range, and a bad year for Airbus looks more off of trend than Boeing's single bad year. You have to account for the different fleet sizes - there is not a 1:1 population ratio between Airbus and Boeing. Last I checked the 737-800 was the most common airplane in the sky. This chart does not account for severity - an open cargo door counts as much as a nose-dive into the ocean. Of course you can't have many incidents when the FAA grounds all of your 737-MAX, so who knows.
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