At this point, I believe that a major cataclysm must occur to disrupt the status quo and throw a wrench into their plans to keep them busy. A meteor strike, a volcano, a nuclear bomb, an alien invasion, anything. The Mad Max scenario is preferable to an organized revolt, because it's obvious that the latter will be crushed before it even begins.
I'll go with your scenario. Big volcano, earthquake, super tsunami hitting an important coastal area. Maybe China invading Taiwan and then saying fuck it and turning on Australia. They're watching how we play out things with the whole Ukrainian experiment. You have to wonder how willing are they to send their soldiers into the line of fire just to deplete our bullets.
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