To move troops in, you have to have cargo and troop lift, and landing craft stacked from here to Taipei. China doesn't. Not in the numbers it would need. It's building that fleet, but it doesn't have it now. Having a two-million man army is great, but unless they are all Olympic level swimmers, they ain't making it to Taiwan in numbers.
Beyond that, Taiwan is essentially a massive aircraft carrier, bristling with weaponry. The Chinese aren't coming anywhere near it without losing half the fleet they send against it.
The US under this bullshit stewardship will do nothing but talk tough. And, yes, that will be the end of US world policing. That's the direction the US was heading anyway, but it will accelerate it by decades. Then the world gets to see what it's like to live without Uncle Sam protecting shipping. (Hint: it ain't good.)
But I would probably expect Japan to step in. Japan has the second largest blue water fleet in the world, and they will use it to defend Taiwan because they could be next if China isn't put back in its box. I think that will be the accelerant. If Japan steps in, the US will have to step in immediately after.
So, you have to ask yourself if China gets more concessions by threatening to invade Taiwan, or actually invading Taiwan. China, to a large extent, exists on extortion. When's the last time they have actually DONE anything.
Keep in mind that China's biggest threat has always been... China. They have spent century after century trying to hold the empire together. Showing weakness on the international stage, actually choking on a Taiwan invasion and showing your mortality, means about 5 regions of China consider independence. (And, add that the current Chinese leadership is already in trouble...) That's why they have a two-million man army because they can walk to those revolting regions if they have to. It wasn't built for invading.
They would start about a half dozen civil wars with a failed invasion attempt AND become an international pariah state. Why would they do that?
Or they can just keep talking and hope people continue to cave to all their demands. Because the West has clearly shown they will at every turn.
I might be wrong. See what happens.
This is the the best response of all the comments so far. Not sure about Japan stepping in. Living here the population is pretty cucked. They would need the US to tell it what to do. There's a reason they have a "self defense force". It's name only. But the mindset has to be overcome to actually take on China.
But it can't be stressed enough how difficult moving an army to invade would be. I firmly believe the US is a paper tiger if we get punched in the face with the loss of a carrier. But the Chinese are also a paper tiger as you alluded to. Stolen and subpar technology and copies of our systems can only get you so far. Plus you have their population becoming more decadent and weak (mirroring us). With their population on the downslope, like most Asian countries, China only has a few more decades to expand their influence. So we will see what damage the CCP can do while they remain in power.
True about Japan. They may be just as hollow a threat as the US is.
I can't even imagine the reaction of the current administration if the US lost a carrier. Half the administration would call for immediate surrender. The other half for full-scale nuclear war.
You don't think like a Chink.
They don't need to move all 2MM troops in. They just need to move enough in to start the long festering Taiwan civil war. I think that their ability to act as massive carrier is overrated, because it is based on our tech, which is overrated and still has to be operated by bugmen. Half the fleet gone in the attack? I think the CCP likes those odds. The good news for us is that their weather window will close at the end of this month, so if we get through the next couple of weeks, the CCP won't have a window to attack again until April.
It's like Ukraine. It only ends one way -- Ukraine loses. The question is, how bad and how much do we end up losing in the process? With Taiwan, I could see us surging 1-2 CVBGs and them getting their shit pushed in and having a chat with Davy Jones. At that point, it doesn't matter how many dozens of bugmen we shot down in the process. We've shit away trillions in hardware and trained men for nothing, and they've spent maybe a hundred million.
What do we do then? We talk a bunch of shit, we park three more CVBGs 1000 km away on the other side of Japan, talk some more shit, tell the nips to do something, and then "impose sanctions."
The only question that matters is if the CCP takes Taiwan without wrecking the semiconductor plants.
Yeah, the Chinese definitely think like the Russians (...or the other way around...) They won't care how many tens of thousands die. Meanwhile, we'll lose our minds over a supply ship going down. (Not to minimize the loss of lives.) We're not mentally ready for that war.
I think 'sanctions' are likely all Biden would ever consider. Whatever the hell that means. Fewer Chinese hooker/spies allowed into the US?
Good point about the window closing.
I cant see a way the US, Japan and Australia dont get involved. You think the military industrial complex is going to miss out on that sweet warfare welfare that a war like that would bring? China would have to blockade Taiwan to prevent the MID from getting weapons in. They cant do it without forcing America to get directly involved. If Taiwan has open supply lines, China will not be able to get air supremacy. If China cant take over the sky, they have absolutely no chance of getting any number of troops across the straight, much less on to the beaches and getting a forward operating base set up. None of this even takes into account the horrible age demographic issues china has.
I think that when enough of our whiz-bang defense welfare shit gets demolished in the first week, the defcontractors will be the ones telling .mil to lay off, to protect their own reputations. They make money killing defenseless people. They haven't had a fair fight in 70 years and don't want to start now.
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