That the universe is deterministic and we have no free will.
probably not as simple as either of those concepts
Probably. That's maybe why almost every important science-fiction books are some sort of prophecies.
And we also have the kind of free will worth wanting: ability to observe environment and make rational decisions a lot of the time, ability to be affected greatly by small details or changing conditions. If our decisions were entirely indeterminate, we'd be crazy. What we desire is the ability to make decisions to our liking, and that we don't regret. Determinism doesn't preclude this.
Sure, but that's not what people mean when they say they have free will. To the vast majority of people free will means they could have made a different decision than they did. In a deterministic system that's not the case. What you've described is the compatibilist definition of free will. Compatibilists simply redefine free will and claim that we have it. It's a lousy way to win an argument.
Compatibilism is following the practical aspect of the term rather than the incompatible "could have done otherwise" not relevant and theoretical aspect. "Could have done otherwise" is a kind of spell to ward off the bogey man of being a slave to some other force.
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