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Everything I read is inflation is at 8% or whatever but yet that statement is always followed up by X Y and Z are up 13, 18, and 23 percent? I keep hearing we aren't yet in a recession but the market has been on a downhill slide since January and big index funds are pretty much where they were pre covid. How is 6 straight months of negative returns and wiping out 2 years of gains not a recession?

Look I'm not very smart and I don't understand how all this shit works but none of this makes sense in my little pea brain.

So how bad is it really?

Everything I read is inflation is at 8% or whatever but yet that statement is always followed up by X Y and Z are up 13, 18, and 23 percent? I keep hearing we aren't yet in a recession but the market has been on a downhill slide since January and big index funds are pretty much where they were pre covid. How is 6 straight months of negative returns and wiping out 2 years of gains not a recession? Look I'm not very smart and I don't understand how all this shit works but none of this makes sense in my little pea brain. So how bad is it really?

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it's weird, but most of the stock market is based on "futures" or projections of supply and demand.

the market is supposed to price in all "known" information. so we know things are very bad, but at this point high inflation, gas, supply issues, etc should be priced in, with the info we have on hand.

any new information, good or bad, will effect the market.

so you ask yourself, what are the chances more bad information will come out? pretty high what are the chances some amazing miracle news will be announced that reverses everything? not high

so the markets will most likely continue to slide down, we just don't have any additional concrete info yet, but it's most likely going to continue.

food prices in the fall, real estate market starts to tank, new lockdown measures, higher inflation numbers - just some things that can be announced that are likely that will send markets lower.