I give it about a 30% by year end. I see it as the end result of escalating belligerence leading to one nation or another in an existential crisis.
US/NATO is supplying arms to Ukraine. Russia has shot down one cargo plane with weapons on it. It won't be long before US/NATO troops are escorting a weapons convoy through Ukraine and Russia attacks it. Not long after that US/NATO air assets will be deployed from outside Ukraine. Russia attacks the operating bases then US/NATO attack Russian forces in Russia. Russia then attacks US assets in CONUS and things really heat up. Things stay conventional until one side is winning too much and then they go nuclear.
Now that Russia is shooting down weapon convoys the powers that be have a script they've been following to start wars. Remember the Lusitania?
Yep, but with the internet today they have to drum up a much stronger fervor.
I'm sure they're planning it as we speak. A lot of planning went into OKC bombing and the 9/11 demolition. They'll do their due diligence.
(post is archived)