They won't escalate to the point of a direct conflict with another major power. This isn't much different from the U.S. invading Afghanistan. They're just planning on capturing the territory rather than funneling money into their military industrial complex. They're doing that because if NATO gains influence, they may no longer be friendly with their trade policies, and Russia has a lot of energy infrastructure that branches through Ukraine. It's also tactically significant; it's a historical invasion pathway. This is sort of a pre-emptive defensive act, not a sign that they want to further expand their territory beyond the former soviet states.