Yeah, lots of paperwork and legal procedure goes into a dishonorable discharge so the military bureaucracy will just try to avoid it. And I doubt Ft. Leavenworth will have enough room for 10s of thousands of service members that are refusing the vax.
Tens of thousands of refusals? I don't doubt that many have claimed they will, but my admittedly ignorant self would be very surprised to find out that many actually disobeyed, and their peers still complied. Isnt the vaccination rate well over 50 percent without any actual orders requiring it
The problem is, the ones who haven't gotten it yet (which is about 40% of the USMC, for example) have said that they don't plan to ever get it. Say that half of them are bluffing -- that's 30K Marines (20% of the force) out right off the bat. Add in that the refusers are overrepresented in combat arms, and the DOJ has a real crisis on their hands.
I can see your point. Definitely worth grabbing some popcorn to see what happens. I'm guessing either a big kaffufle, or slowly swept under the rug in various deniable ways, as you suggested
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