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So unless you have been living under a rock for the past few months, you might be aware that the Taliban have been steamrolling the Afghan government ever since the US pulled out. They now control over half the country and are gaining ground day by day.

I'd say Afghan government probably has about 1 year left.

So unless you have been living under a rock for the past few months, you might be aware that the Taliban have been steamrolling the Afghan government ever since the US pulled out. They now control over half the country and are gaining ground day by day. [Interactive map of Taliban vs Afg Gov control](https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-control-afghanistan/31360050.html) I'd say Afghan government probably has about 1 year left.

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[–] • 2 pts

It's great that the US is out of there, the whole thing was pointless. But, addressing the question, I think the acclamation of victory for the Taliban is premature. To begin with the Taliban are not even trying to take over large towns, instead focusing on choking them off. The media is reporting when districts fall, but fails to mention that many of them are quickly recaptured by the central government. Twenty years of US control has influenced many people. There are many folks that are desperate now that NATO is not defending them. They may get off their asses now that their lives are on the line and do the fighting themselves.

The US and the Afgan central government discouraged the formation of local militias, because they were a unpredictable competitor for power, and many were worried about a return to the chaos of the early 90's, when the Soviet Union left, before the Taliban took over. Now that the US has withdrawn, the central government, in a fit of desperation, is allowing and supporting local militias.

The Taliban is not universally popular. They are seen by many Afgans as Pakistani Pushtu puppets, in a nation with many ethnic groups.

Of course the Chinese have expressed interest in controlling Afghanistan. That's a wild card I'm getting my popcorn ready to watch.

[–] [deleted] • 0 pt

Very interesting perspective. Do you think local militias comprised of hazaras, uzbeks and other minorities will be able to defeat the Pashtuns? Or will they be relegated back to a small stronghold in the North like the Northern Alliance was before the 2001 Aghanistan war?