It depends how the money flows and where it ends up. And inflation csn come from increased demand, decreased supply, or a little bit of both. The fed creates most of that new money when buying mortgage bonds and federal government debt.

So there's more money available to buy homes at a low interest rate, and we've seen hone prices go up. If more people had steady good paying jobs, prices would be going up even faster. But there's also a lot of refinancing that's fueling a boom in construction for home improvement.

On the government side, the extra money went to these crazy covid-related bills and God only knows where it all ended up. But I suspect it just kept prices steady for a lot of goods, because otherwise unemployed people wouldn't have been able to afford expensive food, medic bills, cars, electronics, energy, etc.

Employers are also really hesitant to raise wages to attract new employees because they don't think the market will take the higher prices. Many restaurants are in that situation right now, with some choosing limited hours rather than hike prices. It'll work itself out eventually, but I'm already seeing $10 for a standard fast food "meal" and $20 for a large pizza.

How much is surplus vs. just replacing old bills?

It should mean that but our currency is completely fiat so the rules of economics don't always apply. If they did we'd have basically been bankrupted on August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value.

I'm in Bitcoin to insulate myself from it.

It hasn't been printed M1 is the money supply but it's not just bills, it's also bonds and stuff like that. Is this cause for concern? Yes. Is it going to cause hyperinflation? Maybe.

The thing to understand about the US economy is that it's all fake and most of it doesn't effect the consumer. The vast majority of the money created in the last 10 years has gone to quantitative easing. Basically it was paid to massive financial institutions who are going to sit on it. There is no direct effect on the price of bread, so it's possible the injections of cash, by the time they bleed into the consumer economy the effects will be highly muted.

Think of it this way. If I mine 1,000,000 BTC and sell 1,000. Now I've become obscenely rich, but the value of BTC isn't really effected any more than if I mined 1,000 and sold them all. However I can leverage the fact that I have nearly 1m BTC to do other things like use it as collateral on a loan. This is much like what's going on with QE.

When the fed creates money it distributes it in or selected areas. These become hotspots in the economy and people/businesses rush to the hotspot. Solar energy is an example, electric vehicles is another. But as soon as the fed either stops or refocus the new money, the old hotspots collapse as people and businesses rush to the new hotspot.

Not my idea, I got it from Richard Maybury’s Uncle Eric books.

im expecting more. High inflation is going to dislodge a lot of foreign governments stacks of reserve cash.

Oh, you optimist!

Normalicy bias says America could never suffer a fate like Weimar Germany or Venezuela, but the truth is contrary.

Our whole society is dead, dead end jobs worked by dead eyed workers keeping the machinery going. The super rich are now even richer and so the speculative game begins. All the inflation in my opinion is speculation driven, except oil.

Hypothetically say the speculators drive up the price of corn futures for whatever fucking reason, that leads to higher costs all the way down the chain. Eventually to your breakfast cereal. Speculation in real estate, aka blackrock and gates, leads to higher prices through consolidation and cartel pricing. All that free money finds its way back into the economy and the dead eyed plebs are the ones that take it on the teeth.

As others have said it will come in spikes that eventually spread to the broader economy. Futures and commodities will lead the speculative rush along with real estate and land. Can you imagine where that 2T in crypto speculative money would go if crypto wasn't a thing?