Everyone started canceling building orders last spring when lockdowns started. Mills started scaling back. And then the box stores started selling lumber for home improvement and homeowner projects at an unprecedented rate. And then home building came back online as people fled urban areas. Supply lagged behind a little.
Mills are taking advantage of every excuse they can with muh COVID to keep production low so they can keep charging record rates for lumber. I work on the log supply side of forestry and while delivered log prices have risen somewhat, they are not anywhere near in line with what mills are now charging for their products. They're posting record profits each quarter and very little of that value is making its way through to log suppliers, loggers, truckers, or private forestland owners. They've had a year to figure out their faux production woes and patience throughout the rest of the industry is wearing thin. I'd imagine other sectors of the homebuilding industry are in a similar situation.
There is also a general shortage of loggers and truckers in many regions. Those sectors of forestry have not recovered from the spotted owl / NEPA fuckery and the 2008 recession and they probably never will. Mills have virtual monopolies in most places and can dictate prices at will. Loggers barely squeak by when prices are lower and since they're not getting a piece of the market when it's hot, there's very little incentive to invest in more equipment or add crews.
Also, hyperinflation from printing trillions of dollars.
This makes sense. Here in Fl there is a decent timber industry but I am guessing it is peanuts compared to the Northwest. Therefore dependent on out of state production and the transportation of the commodity...
The quote for a board on board fence for our little back yard @.1.5 years ago was something like $3000, including 2 double gates. Just had a quote for the same thing with 1 single gate for around $8,000. Fucking vinyl is cheaper now, around $6500...
The northwest is still the biggest player for structural lumber but the southeast has a shitload of pine plantations coming online. Still probably not going to be able to compete with NW Doug-fir / larch for structural qualities but it's going to be a growing industry in the south moving forward. Assuming everything doesn't fall apart in the meantime lol.
Thanks for the info.
Also, hyperinflation from printing trillions of dollars.
Gotta get your assets outta USD.
I wonder if something similar is happening with ammo
Yes and no. Remington essentially stopped production right at the beginning of last March. They are now back online and pumping out ammo.
It’s also the scalpers (which can go fuck themselves) that are making it even worse.
I do think that it will probably balance a bit this year but it won’t ever come back down to 18c 9mm
The mill owners are claiming they can't hire enough workers and don't want to raise wages because the demand is temporary.
Sounds fishy to me. After a year of constant demand, the mills should be able to increase supply and reap more profits, even if they hire temporary workers. Perhaps shipping is also a limiting factor.
The general uncertainty about the economy is probably the main factor which leads to inefficiencies in manufacturing.
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